Rolling to Lose One More Year

Well, it appears as though the red cups are gone and another session of Roll Up the Rim is over.  Let's see how my own coffee purchases stacked up to the odds advertised.

I bought 5 smalls, with no winners, 6 mediums, with no winners, 10 large with 2 winners, and 4 extra large with 1 winner.  That is a total of 25 purchases with 3 winners, for a winning percentage of 12% or roughly 1 in 8.  Tim Horton's advertises winning odds of 1 in 6.  DO they lie?  Am I unlucky?  Both? 

Well, probability is much more than these numbers can attest to, as I have outlined in previous posts.  All I know is that it looks suspiciously apparent that Tim Horton's rewards its higher spending patrons based on the results I got this time around.

Roll Up MY Rim and Win!!

Well, it's that time of year, once again.  For anyone who has read my blogs over time, you may remember my posts on the probability of winning on a Roll Up the Rim Tim Horton's cup.  If not, check them out here and here.  Last year I thought to look at the odds and how well they matched up with my hot beverage purchases.  I used the breakdown below to score my results (last year's end totals are displayed):

Drinks for me: 23
Drinks for others: 6
Drinks for me, purchased by others: 4

Total Drinks Purchased: 33

Winning cups for me: 2
Winning cups for others: 2
Winning cups for me, purchased by others: 0

Total winning cups: 4

Odds for me: 2 in 23
Odds for others: 2 in 6
Odds for me, purchased by others: 0 in 4

Total odds: 4 in 33

This year, Tim Horton's (I refuse to use the public relations and media friendly moniker "Tim Hortons" as it pays little respect to the founder of Tim Horton's and separates the chain's history from the man that started it all, hence, Tim Horton's--or the coffee shop belonging to Tim Horton) claims that the odds are 1 in 6.  Let's see about that one...

Drinks for me (so far): 13
Drinks for others (so far): 7
Drinks for me, purchased by others: 1 (Nya:weh, Mr. Sowden)

Total Drinks Purchased: 21

Winning cups for me: 2
Winning cups for others: 3
Winning cups for me, purchased by others: 0

Total Winning Cups: 5

Odds for me: 2 in 13
Odds for others:  3 in 7
Odds for me, purchased by others:  0 for 1

Total odds:  5 in 21.

Consider tracking your own purchases but more importantly, discuss and utilize real life instances of probability to enable students to make real life connections to the math they are learning.

Roll up the Probability Possibilities

A couple of years ago i posted a running total of my roll up the rim to win coffee purchases. i wanted to see if the 1 in 9 chance would actually occur in my own purchases, while also being aware of the geographical inconsistencies in which Tim Hortons distributes its winning cups. This allowed my students and i to engage in conversations around a real-life example of probability. It was fun, (and it may actually resulted in a few coffees being purchased FOR me by some students and their parents -- wink, wink.) So i will continue this practice on the Six Nations Numeracy blog this year. Tim Hortons claims a 1 in 6 chance of winning this year, as they have added more prizes.

However, one factor i didn't anticipate that may have "skewed" the results, were those instances where i actually purchased the coffee, but as a gift for someone else. Did those winning cups count towards my total? Is that why my actual buying experience didn't concur with Tim Hortons' alleged odds? So this year, i will include any winning cups i bought for others. Maybe good karma has its way of working and messing with probability?

Drinks for me: 23

Drinks for others: 6

Drinks for me, purchased by others: 4

Total Drinks Purchased: 33

Winning cups for me: 2

Winning cups for others: 2

Winning cups for me, purchased by others: 0

Total winning cups: 4

Odds for me: 2 in 23

Odds for others: 2 in 6

Odds for me, purchased by others: 0 in 4

Total odds: 4 in 33